Friday, September 24, 2010

The Trade Value of Carmelo Anthony

So word is the Nets, Nuggets, Bobcats and Jazz are about to complete some form of the following trade:

Nets get: Carmelo Anthony
Nuggets get: Derrick Favors, Andre Kirilenko, "multiple first round picks"
Bobcats get: Devin Harris
Jazz get: Boris Diaw

It apparently hinges on 'Melo's willingness to sign an extension, which makes sense, because I certainly wouldn't give up an all star point guard and a top-3 draft pick for a one-year rental towards anything short of a 100% guarantee of a championship. And if I were in 'Melo's Js, I wouldn't sign an extension with a Nets team minus BOTH Favors and Harris.

But here's the thing. Would you really give up Devin Harris and Derrick Favors for 5-6+ years of Carmelo Anthony's services? I've been a major supporter of Anthony since saying that HE, and NOT LeBron, deserved ROY honors, but I still see his limitations. He CAN guard anyone, but it doesn't mean he does. As great and versatile a scorer as he is, he's still a one-dimensional offensive player. And maybe most importantly, he hasn't shown he can lead a team on his own. When you're trading away arguably your two most marquee names, you need to get more than a "mere" elite scorer in return (though 'Melo HAS improved the consistency of his rebounding). I thought it was a reasonable deal with three teams, where Denver gets a large expiring deal and Favors (and picks) and the Nets get Anthony. For me, this would be too much.

With all that said, this deal has "a long way to go" before it gets done. I'm guessing both the Nets and 'Melo's camp share my concerns. DJ Augustin could sweeten the pot for everyone; Larry Brown ain't DJ's biggest fan (and they recently signed SHAUN LIVINGSTON) and I'd think both Avery Johnson and 'Melo would prefer someone like Augustin to run the offense over Jordan Farmer. Yeesh. Just a thought.

Look. Carmelo Anthony is a beast. And I'd argue that his on-court contributions are underrated. But I wouldn't bet the farm on him leading my team to a championship. Maybe that's wrong, maybe he's learned from Chauncey, I don't know. But as big a fan of his as I am, I just couldn't do it. I wouldn't jump at the chance, at least.

(One more thought, more of an absurd fantasy: Denver getting rid of 'Melo basically puts them in full-on rebuild mode. So why not send Chauncey to Jersey as well? Just take Troy Murphy and his expiring deal. Or something like that. Getting Billups would put that team towards the top of the East, I see no reason why not to take that opportunity.)

(Another epiphany: maybe go after Ty Lawson instead of Augustin. Denver doesn't seem to be as fond of him as they should be. THAT would be ideal: Lawson, Terrence Williams, Melo, Murphy('s expiring deal), Brook Lopez. That ain't bad. And considering Billups wouldn't actually put 'em ahead of the Heat, might as well take the younger clone in Lawson.)

As for the rest of the deal:

Jazz
Simple salary dump. Both Diaw's and Kirilenko's deals expire at the end of the year, but AK47 is owed twice the money. Similar players, including similar weak mindsets. Nothing of real on-court significance to see here. Though the Jazz lose another defender to guard Kobe. Hopefully for them Raja Bell can rise to that occasion.

Nuggets
I guess this is the best they can do. They('d) have a slew of 4s (Favors, Nene, Kenyon Martin and Al Harrington) and no swingmen. But I'm a big fan of Favors so it's not too bad. Now that I've thought about it I do think Lawson could at least get talked about here, though looking at it I'm not sure how it'd work (wouldn't give Terrence Williams up for Lawson, I don't think).

Bobcats
Love the trade for 'em. Giving up Diaw to get a more efficient Ray Felton? Now, I was never as high on Devin Harris as damn near everyone else was a couple years ago, but he's a player. I don't like Shaun Livingston getting shoved down the depth chart, but I wouldn't feel bad 'cause dude can't catch a break anyway. Ha. Really though, trade Augustin to make sure this happens, and they're gold.

Ooohh, another epiphany, give Augustin to Denver and they give Lawson to New Jersey. Hmmm...

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