AFC EAST
New York Jets (12-4)
This team is absolutely stacked. The offense is set, outside of the hole left by the release of Alan Faneca, and the Franchez. I think they'll be fine, though. Shonn Greene is legit, LaDainian (please.stop.calling.him.LT) Tomlinson looks young again (for now), and once Santonio Holmes gets back they have the best receiving corps in the NFL. The defense is the defense. Though I can't help but be a little concerned by their lack of depth, something they haven't even tried to hide on Hard Knocks.
New England Patriots (10-6)
Tom Brady and Randy Moss are both in contract years. Long story short, I'm looking for a HUGE year from both, along the same lines as '07. Problem is (well, besides the high unlikelihood of the last statement) the defense is going to hemorrhage points. Jerod Mayo is legit, and Brandon Spikes was a steal for them. But they're gonna have problems. Then again, maybe not. Could be this dynasty's last hurrah.
Miami Dolphins (9-7)
I'm not sold on their defense yet. Losing Joey Porter won't hurt as much this year as his dip in production did last year, when he went from 17.5 sacks and the 'Phins going 11-5 to 9 and 7-9. But it'll hurt. Karlos Dansby is a better football player, but they need to get to the QB; maybe he'll help bring the unit together. Vontae Davis will take his place amongst the elite corners of the league (unless the pass rush is awful, not to beat a dead horse).
Buffalo Bills (4-12)
Common sense tried to tell me they won't win more than two games. But I dunno. They have more than a few interesting names on defense. And CJ Spiller is legit, if he doesn't get brutalized by week 4.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
This is probably crazy. I know. Not as crazy as the thought that the BENGALS would have the best defense in the division. But it's true. The Ravens are OLD, and the Steelers are getting there. If Antwan Odom comes picks up where he left off, LOOK OUT. I'm also hoping the whole Batman & Robin thing works out. If Carson Palmer can stop playing like a little girl...
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
That Monday Night game against the Jets is gonna be awesome. But I have reservations about that defense. The secondary is a joke, especially with Ed Reed now on the PUP list and ineligible for the first six games. Ray Lewis is old. Haloti Nhata might be their best defensive player. These are all things that are bad, in case you're wondering. The offense could be scary, though. Joe Flacco has a cannon, Ray Rice is a beast, Anquan Boldin as well (when he's on the field). But even Donte' Stallworth is injured (out for two months). I like this team a lot, but I'm a little worried.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Sue me. The o-line keeps getting worse. Santonio Holmes is gone and Hines Ward isn't getting any younger. I like Rashard Mendenhall a lot, but he needs help. More than the Rapist can give him. The defense will still be strong, but not like in the past. James Harrison has quickly become one of the most overrated players in football, though LaMarr Woodley is a monster.
Cleveland Browns (1-15)
DISASTER.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
I decided to look at Bob Sanders' career stats, to see if I could find some loose pattern in the years in which he misses more or less time. What I saw was 15- and 14-game seasons sprinkled in his 6 years. How many games did he play in the other four years, you ask? 18. Yep. Anyway, it's Peyton Manning. He's winning 12 on his own. And if Sanders plays double-digit games? Definite Super Bowl run.
Houston Texans (10-6)
Their front-7 is great. But I feel like I've been saying that for a while now. The offense will be a juggernaut, however. Matt Schaub has gotten hurt a lot, but they've all been unique injuries. If it was karma that kept him on the sidelines, last year would lead us to believe that he paid off his debt. I will forever gloat about Andre Johnson.
Tennessee Titans (8-8)
Unless Derrick Morgan is Javon Kearse 2.0 I don't see how the defense will be a positive factor at all. Chris Johnson is Chris Johnson, and Vince Young will silence a few doubters. But I can't see anything better than .500 without a miracle.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
The defense is bad. MJD is great and Garrard is as unspectacular as they come. Mike Sims-Walker is a stud but he's perpetually injured. Five wins might be too generous, especially if MJD's knee gives him problems.
AFC WEST
Oakland Raiders (10-6)
As I said before, Jason Campbell will have a better year than Donovan McNabb. I strongly believe it. He's got a talented, albeit unheralded, group of receivers to throw to, and a decent line in front of him (something he's never seen before in the NFL). There's one issue: Michael Bush's broken thumb. He's missing the first game, and could miss up to half the season. If he's out Campbell will really need to step up. The defense is better than most realize. I'll leave it at that and wait for you to check out the roster; it's surprisingly impressive.
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
I hate Phillip Rivers, but he's incredible. Maybe the best arm (strength/accuracy) in football. But he's gonna miss Vincent Jackson. People keep saying Malcom Floyd will step right in and everything will be fine because he's similar height and weight (6'5" 225), but that's a little ridiculous. Jackson is a great player. What's even worse, Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeil is holding out as well, though the front office seems a bit more motivated to get him back on board (I hope so, for Ryan Matthews' sake...). The defense is a nightmare. Shawne Merriman is just above average, Shaun Phillips is overrated trash... the front-7 is really bad. Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are good, but corners aren't shit when there's no pass rush.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
They have a very easy schedule, and they've done a lot on both sides of the ball. Eric Berry will be a superstar, and fast. Brandon Flowers is also a stud. And the front-7 is surprisingly good. On offense, I don't particularly like Matt Cassell, but Dwayne Bowe is talented, and crazy as it sounds, Chris Chambers is still good. He played pretty well in his 9 games in KC. The o-line is getting better, and they have a three-headed-monster at RB: Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster. Thomas Jones is at the wrong end of 30 and coming off his heaviest workload of his career, so while he'll be valuable in the red zone, he won't put much of a dent in Charles' production. McCluster is like a tough Reggie Bush sans the hype; he might catch 60 passes. Watch out for him.
Denver Broncos (5-11)
I'm really high on Knowshon Moreno. I'm hoping he can stay healthy (partially torn hamstring kept him out of the entire preseason). But after him, there's not much on offense. The line is solid at least. The defense lost Elvis Dumerville, and I don't know what they're gonna do without him. Champ Bailey is ageless, but without a pass rush...
There you have it. I might do playoffs and awards later, not sure yet.
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