Sunday, March 14, 2010

NCAA Tournament - South Region

First I need to say that I didn't follow college basketball this season as much as I have in the past - maybe part of that has been due to this being the worst season I can think of - so a lot of my analysis on the teams will come from computer research. I'm only doing this for my own benefit (brackets) so take what you will from this accordingly.

I'm starting with the South because, quite simply, this region pissed me off. Nobody can deny the bias towards Duke that exists in every facet of college basketball (from media to, you guessed it, the selection committee), but the way the South is laid out is ridiculous. I realize that some regions will be tougher than others, but Duke was last on the list of top seeds (and may have stolen the spot from West Virginia and/or Ohio State), their bracket should look like the Midwest (a minefield that top overall seed Kansas inexplicably has to deal with).

FAVORITE
Has to be Duke. But that isn't to say they have a cakewalk to the Final Four. I said the rest of the region was a joke, I never said anything about Duke being a legitimate contender. Don't get me wrong, they're very good - and my admitted HATE for them is VERY strong... - but they don't even come close to being as good as the other #1 seeds.

I can see them slipping as early as Sunday if Louisville - led by what seems like 8-year senior Edgar Sosa - takes care of Cal, as they should. After that, I don't think anybody could compete with them until the Elite Eight, where either Baylor could play a next-to-perfect game or Villanova could return to mid-season form.

NEXT IN LINE
I only see two other relevant teams in this region: Villanova and Baylor. If Baylor plays consistent ball then they'll give themselves a good shot. But their style seemed awkward to me, and the Big XII wasn't good at all this year. Villanova was ranked second in the country before losing six of their last ten, including five of seven; but to call that ten game stretch difficult would be a gross understatement (@G'town, @WVU, Providence, UConn, @Pitt, USF, @'Cuse, @Cincy, WVU, Marqette). Scottie Reynolds is one of the best players in the country, and 'Nova is definitely capable of getting back to where they were.

SLEEPER
Notre Dame. They're hot, and not only do they have Luke Harangody back, but Tory Jackson is playing like the experienced senior he is (finally). While I can't see them winning the region, who knows in this region.

WINNER
I'm taking Villanova. Mostly because I hate Duke, but also because I think that if both teams are at their best, Villanova is a better team. My biggest concern is that, coming from the Big East, 'Nova plays a tougher brand of basketball and Duke will get the Lion's share of calls. Especially since 'Nova already got Duke last year. But I'm sticking with Villanova. Scottie Reynolds MOP.

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